Government figures assessing the success of its welfare-to-work programme are expected to show a crucial target has been missed.
Firms and charities are paid to help find jobs for the long-term unemployed in the hope of helping 2.4m people.
But the first set of official figures, due out at shortly, are expected to show they are getting less than 5% of jobseekers into "sustainable" work.
Ministers argue the programme will help cut welfare payments and change lives.
But critics say only those in already economically successful areas will benefit.
The figures will show how many people are still in employment six months after joining the Work Programme, which was launched by the coalition in June last year.
BBC political editor Nick Robinson says the figures are expected to show that only around 3% of jobseekers meet this criteria.
End QuoteThe work programme was part of what ministers called a revolution in welfare "
And failing to hit the 5% target will mean "as many unemployed are getting sustainable jobs as if the work programme had never existed", he said.
He added that the government will not accept the scheme is a failure and will claim the work programme is taking longer than expected to succeed and the next set of figures will be better.
Under the scheme - replacing the New Deal, Employment Zones and Pathways to Work - approved providers in England, Scotland and Wales, mostly private companies, try to find work for claimants on a payment-by-results basis.
'Still early days'People aged over 25 become eligible when they have been out of work for a year and under-25s after nine months. Some younger people in certain circumstances, like young offenders, are eligible after a shorter period of time.
Ahead of the release of the government's figures, the Employment Related Services Association, the trade body for the welfare-to-work industry, said 20,000 jobseekers were being helped each month. More than 200,000 have found employment since the scheme's launch, it added.
But these figures do not show how many have remained in a job for six months after being helped off long-term unemployment, unlike the official ONS figures.
Employment minister Mark Hoban said: "The Work Programme has already helped more than 200,000 of the hardest-to-help unemployed people into jobs. This is great news.
He added: "It's still early days, but it's a welcome sign that one year in providers are getting more and more people into sustained jobs."
The Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion think-tank predicted that the official data would show performance targets missed as a result of the poor state of the UK's economy.
Under the programme, providers can earn between £3,700 and £13,700 per person helped into work, depending how hard it is to give support to an individual, with an initial payment of between £400 and £600.
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