Kerry in Seoul for North Korea talks

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 12 April 2013 | 16.50

12 April 2013 Last updated at 04:54 ET
A rocket launching

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President Obama has warned N Korea to end its "belligerent approach"

US Secretary of State John Kerry is in South Korea for talks on the escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula.

Mr Kerry is discussing the crisis with President Park Geun-hye and his South Korean counterpart as well as US military commanders in the country.

US officials have said he will use his Asian tour to urge China to use its influence to rein in Pyongyang.

Mr Kerry's visit comes as a US report said the North could be capable of launching a nuclear-armed missile.

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, a declassified section of which was disclosed by a US Congressman, said there was "moderate" confidence that Pyongyang had developed the technology to mount a nuclear warhead on a missile, though noted that its "reliability will be low".

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Analysis

If true, the US Defence Intelligence Agency's (DIA) assessment that North Korea "has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles" suggests that Pyongyang has made significant progress in its efforts to design and miniaturise a warhead.

But this conclusion is tentative and perhaps in an effort to reduce tensions the Pentagon followed up with a statement saying that "it would be inaccurate to suggest that the North Korean regime has fully tested, developed or demonstrated" this kind of capability."

So does Pyongyang have a deliverable nuclear warhead or not? The jury must be still out. The leaked DIA assessment is in effect a glimpse of the intelligence process in action; building upon raw data and analysis; making tentative conclusions; and perhaps eventually firming them up.

The current crisis over a potential North Korean missile test or tests remains much as it was. But the ultimate stakes are higher as the trajectory of Pyongyang's ambitions becomes ever clearer.

The BBC's John Sudworth in Seoul says years of debate and diplomacy have been invested in preventing such an outcome.

While North Korea's angry rhetoric and threats have often been dismissed as bluster, proof that it had a deliverable nuclear weapon would present a much more significant strategic challenge, he adds.

However, the Pentagon has since said it would be "inaccurate" to suggest North Korea has fully developed and tested such weapons.

In a statement, it said the US continued to monitor the situation, and called on North Korea to "honour its international obligations".

Regional reassurance

Mr Kerry's visit to South Korea begins his first trip to Asia since becoming secretary of state. On Saturday he will travel to Beijing and on Sunday, go on to Tokyo.

His tour comes as South Korea is on a high state of alert amid indications that the North is preparing for a missile test.

Pyongyang has moved two Musudan ballistic missiles to its east coast. Estimates of their range vary, but some suggest the missiles could travel 4,000km (2,500 miles).

That would put US bases on Guam within range, although it is not believed that the Musudan has been tested before.

Mr Kerry's trip has been planned for several weeks but the rising tensions have given it a new sense of urgency, says our correspondent.

In Seoul, he will meet Ms Park at the presidential Blue House, before going on to meet his South Korean counterpart, Yun Byung-se.

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US media on leaked report

The New York Times says there is clearly "deep concern" in Obama administration about the publicising of the report, hence the rush to "qualify the conclusion". But it adds that outside experts say the report could explain why the US has boosted its missile defences in recent weeks.

Ernesto Londono in the Washington Post notes that the reference to the unreliability of any North Korean weapon "presumably reflected concerns about the accuracy of the ballistic missiles in North Korea's arsenal as well as the technical difficulties of miniaturizing nuclear devices". But he says experts view it as the most specific US assessment yet on Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.

The Wall Street Journal says the disagreement in Washington over the report is a sign the high tensions over "how best to address the North Korean threat without triggering precipitous reactions from US allies in North Asia". Dion Nissenbaum and Jay Solomon write: "The White House has made an effort to rein in tensions and more tightly control the message, but as the varying interpretations of Pyongyang's abilities show, that can be difficult on politically charged issues."

The BBC's Kim Ghattas, who is travelling with Mr Kerry, says that US diplomacy is of limited use in dealing with North Korea itself, but that his visit is intended to reassure Washington's allies in Seoul and Tokyo about American support.

They will also go over preparations to deal with North Korea's expected missile launch and explore ways to move beyond the crisis, she adds.

US officials have said Mr Kerry will use his time in Beijing to put pressure on China - Pyongyang's last remaining ally - to use its influence over North Korea to calm the tensions.

"Fundamentally we would want them to use some of that leverage because otherwise it is very destabilising and it threatens the whole region," an official told reporters on board Mr Kerry's plane.

"China has a huge stake in stability and the continued North Korean pursuit of a nuclear armed missile capability is the enemy of stability. That gives us and the Chinese a very powerful objective in common, namely denuclearisation," the official said.

US President Barack Obama has urged Pyongyang to end its "belligerent approach... and to try to lower temperatures".

He has warned "the United States will take all necessary steps to protect its people".

China, meanwhile, has denied reports that it is deploying troops along the North Korean border.

A defence ministry official said Beijing was "paying close attention to the development of the current situation on the Korean Peninsula and has always been committed to safeguarding peace and stability in Northeast Asia," the state Xinhua news agency reports.

North Korea has increased its warlike rhetoric following fresh UN sanctions imposed after its third nuclear test in February and joint military manoeuvres by the US and South Korea.

North Korean troops

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North Korea has been making threats against South Korea, Japan and US bases in the region

The North says it will restart a mothballed nuclear reactor, has shut an emergency military hotline to the South and has urged countries to withdraw diplomatic staff, saying it cannot now guarantee their safety.

However, in the past few days North Korea's media appear to be in more of a holiday mood, due to the approach of Monday's celebrations marking the birth of national founder Kim Il-sung - a potential launch date for a new missile test.

On Thursday, foreign ministers from the G8 group of nations condemned in the "strongest possible terms" North Korea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.


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